Uncertainty in Predictions of Hurricane Frequency and Intensity in Relation to the Greenhouse Effect

In 1992 Hurricane Andrew came ashore just south of Miami, Florida. In its wake it left just over sixteen billion dollars in insured damage. In the same year, the United Nation’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued a report declaring that “global warming is inevitable.”1 These two ominous events have fueled concern that global warming may lead to devastating hurricanes. However, some have argued that much of this concern is “demonstrably unfounded [and] being embellished by politics.”2 What is needed is to fill the gap between existing scientific knowledge and public policy, for it is the responsibility of public policy makers to be concerned with questions in which science cannot come to definitive conclusions. Central to this effort is an understanding of the uncertainty involved in scientific conclusions concerning hurricanes. This paper will review the current literature regarding the predictions of hurricane intensity and frequency in a greenhouse situation and discuss the uncertainty arising from conclusions found in the literature.3